Will users flee AT&T if Verizon (or another - Iceb

As (unconfirmed) reports continue to trickle in claiming that Apple is preparing to churn out millions of CDMA-ready iPhones, analysts and execs in the wireless industry are scrambling to predict what might happen if AT&T loses its exclusivity deal with Apple in the coming months.

The latest evidence suggesting that another U.S. carrier — perhaps the biggest of them all, Verizon Wireless — is about to get the iPhone comes from wireless analyst Jeffrey Fidacaro of Susquehanna Financial Group, who (in a note to investors snagged by AppleInsider) writes that "checks with overseas supplies" indicate that Apple is gearing up to build about 3 million CDMA iPhones in December alone, which would put Cupertino "on track" for the launch of a CDMA-ready iPhone in "early" 2011.

For now, Apple has only been making GSM versions of the iPhone, which are compatible with AT&T’s GSM cellular network. With a CDMA iPhone, however, Apple would be free to jump to a CDMA carrier like Sprint or Verizon Wireless — assuming its exclusivity deal with AT&T is expired or otherwise kaput. (GSM carrier T-Mobile is another option that’s been bandied about.)

The prevailing wisdom is that frustrated AT&T iPhone users would immediately jump ship for Verizon or any other carrier that gets the iPhone here in the states — the only question is how many, and naturally enough, the number varies wildly depending on whom you ask.

Reuters, for example, got a hold of a recent survey from Deloitte, which found that nearly half of current iPhone users on AT&T would be "very interested" in jumping ship were Verizon to get the iPhone. Talk about an exodus.

But then there’s this competing survey (courtesy of the San Jose Business Journal) from Credit Suisse, which pegs the number of AT&T iPhone users who’d make a break for Verizon at just 23 percent, or a little less than one in four.

Even then, the Credit Suisse survey adds, only about 3 percent of AT&T subscribers would break their contracts to go the Verizon way — or,Iceberg, looked at another way,Juicy Couture shoes, 97 percent of AT&T iPhone users said they’d be content to stick around at least until their contracts expire. 

For his part, AT&T wireless CEO Randall Stephenson says he isn’t too worried about the carrier losing its iPhone exclusivity, since 80 percent of iPhone users are on a family plan or in a "business relationship" with the carrier — and those customers "tend to be sticky," Stephenson said Tuesday (as quoted in this MarketWatch.com post).

In any case, it’s looking more and more like we’ll soon find out for real, given the steady drumbeat of reports about the iPhone breaking its AT&T bounds by early next year. (Then again, we’ve been teased with the prospect of a Verizon iPhone several times before, only to come up empty.)

So, you AT&T iPhone users out there, let’s go ahead and conduct our own informal survey: Would you jump ship if Verizon, T-Mobile, and/or Sprint got the iPhone? And would you be willing to break your contract to make the switch?

AppleInsider: Suppliers say Apple will build first batch of CDMA iPhones in December
MarketWatch: AT&T chief not worried about losing iPhone
Reuters: Study finds iPhone owners want to switch to Verizon
San Jose Business Journal: 1.4M AT&T users seen jumping to Verizon iPhone

— Ben Patterson is a technology writer for Yahoo! News.

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